Going by the pre-sowing price forecast-2023-24, cotton is expected to fetch around Rs 7,550 – Rs 8,000 per quintal at the time of harvesting that commences toward the end of October and continues till February next year.
Cotton area in the State had come down a bit because of the seasonal conditions that were not in favour of the growers in certain pockets. The short fall in the sown area was in the order of two lakh acres. The decline is more or less in tune with the global perspective. Consequently , it could impact production as well as supplies marginally, thus adding to the overall demand.
Cotton picking, which has already commenced in some of the northern States, is likely to gain momentum in the State too towards the second or third week of November. The marketing season is likely to take off on a positive note.
Quality stocks from the farmers in certain markets of the State fetched up to Rs 11,500 to Rs 12,000 per quintal during the last marketing season. But the growers who continued to hold the stocks in hope of further rise in the price were in for a rude shock because of the sudden dip to below Rs 7,500 per quintal due to poor demand from the ginning mills and drop in exports.
Farmers are now disposing the stocks at the prevailing market price of Rs 6,500 to 7,500 after a long wait. No significant hike in the price could be expected in the beginning of the marketing season. There is no big variation in the projected production of cotton in China and USA, the two global competitors for India, according to R Vijay Kumari, Principal Investigator, Agriculture Market Intelligence Centre, Prof Jayashankar Agriculture University.
The centre has assessed the pre-sowing price forecast of cotton for the year 2023-24 expecting normal rainfall and an increase in crop area. It was predicted that the cotton price per quintal will be around Rs 7,550 – 8,000 at the time of harvesting (November 2023 to February 2024)